IMBIT Pandemic Preparedness
Intervention Modelling & Bayesian Inference of Transmission routes (2024-2026).
IMBIT is a recently awarded ZonMW grant, in which three groups of modellers (at WUR, RIVM and UTwente) are developing disease simulation models and an Bayesian inference model to discover the source of new outbreaks
Here is our short summary:
At the beginning of a pandemic, one of the few options governments have at their disposal to slow the spread of a disease are interventions that limit contact between humans and/or animals. These interventions are tested in simulation models that try to accurately mimic the mode of disease transmission (e.g. airborne, contact, mosquito bites) and the main hosts (humans, wild animals or livestock) that are involved.
The goal of this project is to develop three simulation models and a statistical model that will prepare the Netherlands for future pandemics for which we do not yet know the mode of transmission. The statistical model serves to distinguish the most likely transmission routes in the early stages of an epidemic.
The simulation models can simulate many different transmission routes and serve to train the statistical model and to test effective interventions within livestock or in humans.